“The upside pressure on volumes for the iPhone 12 series, historical outperformance in the July-September time period heading into launch event, and further catalysts in relation to outperformance for iPhone 13 volumes relative to lowered investor expectations implies a very attractive set up for the shares in the second half of the year and thus expect AAPL shares to outperform the broader market materially in 2H21,” JPMorgan said.
The bank expects Apple to sell 226 million iPhone units in its fiscal year of 2022, close to what TrendForce expects, while other investors expect around 210-150 million iPhone unit range.
JPMorgan also reiterated its Overweight rating and raised its price target on Apple from $165 to $170. The bank says that when the company is expected to have high sales volumes, it usually surpasses expectations, and the same happens when investors don’t expect much from Apple.
“We see the iPhone 13 launch as more of the latter, similar to the iPhone 11 cycle, with a multi-year 5G tailwind to the replacement rate and a larger installed base supporting stronger run-rate of annual volumes relative to current investor expectations,” JPMorgan said.
Based on the rumors we’ve seen so far, the iPhone 13 isn’t expected to have big changes. Apart from a display with a higher refresh rate in the Pro models and a smaller notch, this year will probably be an “S” year rather than a full revamp of its line, as JPMorgan reiterates.
Apple is expected to introduce a new A15 chip, as well as better camera sensors, although it will probably maintain its maximum storage capacity with 512GB. You can check our full iPhone 13 roundup here.
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